The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It

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The Failure of Risk Management" is a book about a serious problem in the business of risk analysis and how to fix it. Basic analysis methods are unused or misapplied on major corporate and government decisions. This book shows how some of the most popular "risk analysis" methods are no better than astrology (they are not based on anything an actuary or statistician would recognize as a sound, quantitative analysis), how even some of the more quantitative analysis approaches use methods that systematically underestimate risk, how studies show that, when left to use their own instinct, business, government and the general public have completely unrealistic perceptions of risk. The other facet of this book is to explain how every one of these problems can be corrected by using methods that are already proven and applied successfully in other areas of business and government.