The Cycle Is the Trend

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In their seminal paper, Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with permanent (trend) and transitory shocks and show on a 1980-2003 dataset for Canada and Mexico that the relative importance of permanent to transitory hocks distinguishes emerging markets from developed small open economies. I extend their framework over the period 1980-2012 and include Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina as benchmark emerging markets and Canada, Portugal, and Spain as their developed counterparts. In contrast with Aguiar and Gopinath, I find that big economic events, rather than particular market classications, determine the volatility of the output trend in any given country.