Stock Stories

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A "stock story" is an encapsulation of the essential logical process employed by value investors when deciding whether or not to invest in a given stock. While there are many statistics and rubrics that can give one a snapshot view of a company, often these do not tell the whole story, or may even mask the potential for return on what to outsiders seems to be a risky stock. Negative press may drive down the price of a stock without any real change taking place in the company's intrinsic value, new and better leadership may be installed in a foundering company, allowing investors who know the "stock story" a short window in which to invest, before the price naturally rises. Successful value investors are those who research the background of a stock and are therefore able to create a variant interpretation of its value. There are several kinds of stock opportunities available to the astute value investor, and Englander deals with each in turn, illustrating them with copious examples. One must first understand how to appropriately interpret the situation of a company, however: its inherent value, where it stands in its industrial cycle, how to read and what weight to give its balance sheet, and how effective its leadership is. Once these pieces are in place, the investor can come up with his or her personal valuation of the stock, and then compare it with the market value. When is a stock cheap because of misconceptions in the market, and when because it is genuinely a losing business? In what situations does the market most frequently misjudge a company's value? Finding answers to questions like these, and putting together the stock story in the process, is the job of a value investor.