On the Cyclonic Distribution of Rainfall (Classic Reprint)
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Excerpt from On the Cyclonic Distribution of Rainfall
Some years ago I had the pleasure of hearing a lecture on weather, given by one of the observers of the United States Weather Bureau. The lecturer discussed the distribution of weather in the extra tropical cyclones in America. He described the conditions which characterize the four quadrants of an area of low pressure. He especially emphasized the statement we often find in text-books, that the greatest precipitation occurs in the re gion which lies some distance to the southeast of the center of an area of low pressure.
A short time after hearing this lecture I had occasion to dis cuss weather prognostics with a gentleman whose occupation had led him for many years to closely watch the government's fore casts issued at Davenport, Iowa. This gentleman said he had found that storms would usually arrive from six to twenty hours behind the time they were due according to the local forecasts. Otherwise he regarded the predictions as quite reliable and valu able. When a storm is announced, he said, it will almost al ways come, but it is apt to be a little behind time. This state ment corroborated an impression which I had myself received. It is the writer's belief that if a careful comparison were made of the forecasts referred to, and of the actual conditions of the weather at Davenport previous to 1896 - since 'which time I have given less attention to the matter - it would be found that the forecasts more frequently missedby announcing storms too early, than too late.
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