Developing an Aggregate Marginal Cost Per Flying Hour Model for the U.S. Air Force's F-15 Fighter Aircraft

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Flying operations comprise 49% of the US Air Force readiness budget. Current forecast models of the Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH) program suffer significant errors. These errors are as high as 25% of total annual cost, which is equivalent to the entire US Air Force space budget. These forecast errors place considerable budgetary and operational readiness risk on the US Air Force. This research presents a new forecasting method for high frequency cost estimation of base level Cost Per Flying Hour. Using a balanced panel of base level, monthly data on Depot Level Reparables and Consumables for all active duty F-15s and their variants, this thesis presents a stochastic forecast, simulation and analytical model.