Danger Zone

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It is conventional wisdom that America and China are running a "superpower marathon" that may last a century. But the sharpest phase of that competition will be a decade-long sprint, and the moment of maximum danger could be just a few years away, Brands and Beckley argue. China has entered the most perilous period in the life of a great power. It has gained the capability to upend the existing international order, but is not yet secure or powerful enough to build a new order. Soon its window to act will slam shut-unless it takes drastic action. China is behaving so aggressively in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and other areas not because it is a confident, rising power, but because it is a peaking power whose economy is slowing while its rivals multiply. America will still need a long-term strategy for competing with China. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.